After consecutive lackluster performances against Georgia and Estonia in the UEFA Nations League, Armenia find themselves in the exact same position as the last matchday. Armenia are currently 3^rd in Group C2 after 4 matches played. The team is sitting in third place with 5 points from 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss, scoring 6 goals and conceding 5 with a goal difference of +1. Despite the glaringly obvious disappointment of not taking 6 points from two very winnable matches, Armenia is very far from out of this race, and here is why.

Georgia sits above Armenia in the standings because they have an additional point from the away draw to Macedonia, where Armenia lost 1-2. Like Armenia, Georgia has only 1 win in the competition and like Armenia that comes from a win against Estonia, albeit away. Armenia take on Georgia in the next round while Macedonia host Estonia. Similarly, top of the group Macedonia has 1 win, against us, 3 draws and 0 losses, scoring 7 goals, but conceding 6, leading to a +1 goal difference. The only reason they are currently on top of Georgia is because the head to head goals are tied at 4-4, but Macedonia has 7 goals for, while Georgia has 4.

This next match day is going to be crucial for every team in this group, but again for some reason doesn’t spell the end of any teams hopes. Even with a draw against Georgia, Armenia can clinch the group with 3 points against Macedonia on the final match day if the Georgian side drop points against Estonia and because Armenia will be ahead of Macedonia on head to head goals or goals scored with a win. All in all, Armenia has the second least conceded goals in this group with 5 goals Georgia has conceded the lease with 4, and the second highest goals scored, with 6, only 1 behind Macedonia’s 7. To put it simply, Armenia currently have the second-best defense in the group, and the second-best offense. Statistically speaking, Armenia are not down nor out of this contest by any stretch of the imagination.

To put this into a wider perspective, Armenia is currently undefeated in 3 matches. The last time Armenia did this was in the 2018 Nations League where the side got its act together after consecutive losses to Macedonia away and an embarrassing 1-0 defeat to Gibraltar. The side went on to smash Macedonia 4-0, put 6 passed that same Gibraltar and end the league with a draw away to Liechtenstein 2-2. If we want to go farther back, the last time Armenia went undefeated in three competitive matches was in 2011, during the infamous European Qualifiers run with a 3-0 win against Andorra, 4-0 away to Slovakia, and 4-1 at home to Macedonia. 

My point with all of this being that this side is doing well, actually a lot better than we think they are. Now this can obviously change with 2 losses next month, but that’s ok. Armenia should not top the group and should not move up to League B if they aren’t ready to do so. But, if Armenia does get a couple wins, or a couple draws, or a win and a draw, the side will be undefeated in 5 matches, something no Armenian side has ever done before. 

It may feel like the side is stagnant and not progressing, but any Armenian anywhere in the world right now knows how the boys in the dressing room are feeling. Just like how we are having a difficult time concentrating at work, so are they. We are all human, we all make mistakes and we lose focus knowing what our people are currently facing. What is important, and what will be evident a month from now, is if this side, led by Caparros, can grow from this experience. 

Armenia have only played 1 true home match, and hopefully can return to the Vasgen Sargsyan Stadium next month to host Macedonia and clinch the group. But before any of that can happen, there is a war that needs to end. If for some reason this does not happen, and Armenia must play 5 of its 6 matches away from home sobeit. These are things that are out of our control. Just remember, Armenia is not down or out.