Armenia travel to Tallinn, Estonia for the 4^th round of the UEFA Nations League. After drawing against Georgia in the “home” match that took place in Poland, the Armenian side looks carry the momentum and take three points in a match that can see Armenia top the table with a win, and a draw between Georgia and North Maceodnia.

The Estonian side are currently bottom of the table with 1 point, however, this side are not the pushovers people expect them to be. They quickly brought North Macedonia down to reality after the celebrations of reaching the final of the Nations League playoff. Estonia held a 3-1 lead at home to North Macedonia with Sappinen brace and a penalty from Liivak. The visitors were able to recover in the final 10 minutes and score twice to spare the blushes. Macedonia were notable fielding a slightly weaker side, however, their arrogance lead to their quick downfall. The professionalism from captain Goran Pandev proved to be their saving grace. 

Armenia on the other hand looked very poor against a Georgia side that had 8 changes made from their semi-final win last Thursday. Armenia were quickly ahead with a goal from Khoren Bayramyan but failed to adjust and found themselves without possession and not many chances created. It took only 30 seconds into the second half for Georgia to equalize and then take the lead in the 60^th minute. Armenia were able to tie it up via a Henrikh Mkhitaryan penalty in the 88^th minute, but the winner did not come despite a good effort in the final 30 minutes. 

Armenia and Estonia met last month in Yerevan where the home side came away with all three points in a solid performance. Goals from Karapetyan and Wbeymar sealed the 2-0 victory. The major takeaway from that match was that the process was very much in early stages, but the promising signs were visibly there. Armenia got the three points and scored 3 goals in 2 matches without talisman Mkhitaryan. Koryan took center stage and provided the creativity, but he is unfortunately out with an illness (not COVID-19) and left the camp before the squad departed to Poland. 

Mkhitaryan will likely bare most of the creative responsibility, dependent on how Joaquin Caparros chooses to deploy his side. After a very poor performance, Kamo Hovhannisyan was subbed off in the second half and defensive stability was achieved when goal scorer Bayramyan moved to right back. This is a change that should be made from the start of this match, however, whether or not Caparros has the guts to do it is another thing. Vice-captain Varazdat Haroyan is suspended for this match after picking up consecutive yellows. Based on the pecking order we have seen so far, Ishkhanyan is expected to start alongside Calisir at the back. Arman Hovhannisyan is expected to keep his place. This means 2/4 players in the back line will be different from the last match in a hope to maintain some defensive stability and snuff out the few expecting Estonian chances. 

In the midfield, Wbeymar and Grigoryan are expected to start once again, however, their instructions should be to remain a lot tighter and prevent any simple passes from getting through the midfield like they did against Georgia. Considering his aging legs and the opposition, I would not be opposed to starting Udo or Benik Hovhannisyan instead. Udo’s pace and ability to move the ball forward can solve some of the transitional play issues from the last match. I think it is a good time to try this out. 

Aleksandr Karapetyan will likely keep his place up top after not receiving much service against Georgia but scored last time out against Estonia. Henrikh Mkhitaryan will definitely start at the 10 position, where Caparros seems to prefer him. The question arises as to who will join him in the attacking midfield, specifically on the wings. If Bayramyan is deployed as a right back, Edgar Babayan may start on the right wing. Tigran Barseghyan’s workrate and his excellent dribble and cross for the assist on the first goal means he will likely start. Alternatively, Kadimyan did come in and win the penalty that tied the match up, albeit from a handball. Journalists in the pre-match press conference asked about giving Vahan Bichakchyan more game time, and potentially starting against Estonia. It is clear that Caparros sees Mkhitaryan and Koryan as the 10’s in the team, and Vahan as more of a Left Winger. As much as I would love to see him start and considering his current goalscoring form for his club side, you can make an argument that he should be.

Unfortunately, it is highly unlikely that Caprros will be adventurous enough to make the changes I am calling for. He will likely start more traditional defenders at the back, instead of Bayramyan who clearly made a difference, and he will definitely not start Vahan. The Estonian side is definitely going to come into this match on a high, and very confident in themselves as they should be. Armenia were able to beat this team without Mkhitaryan, and if our talisman is everything he is supoosed to be for us, this match should be a victory. Caparros needs to get his tactics and personnel correct for this match. If Armenia do not dominate the statistics and have a scoreline in their favor, questions should be raised about the decision making in the midfield and attack. Armenia has the depth in those positions and at this point a risk or two in attack can pay off. Defensively speaking our woes continue and the suspension of Haroyan makes matters worse. Kamo Hovhannisyan should be dropped for this match and Gareginyan should not be anywhere near the pitch, no discussion. 

Armenia vs Estonia kicks off at 11:45 AM PST/ 2:45 PM EST. American viewers can watch the match live on ESPN+. Canadian viewers can watch the match for free on UEFA.com with an account. The match will also be like on ArmeniaTV, which can be found on Armenian and American television. A stream of the Armenian language commentary will be up on Gisher.org.