Two weeks into a war with neighbors Azerbaijan because of attacks on Artsakh by a Turkish backed military, the Armenian National Team lands in Poland after UEFA deemed Yerevan unsafe to play a competitive football match. In a similar situation to the Europa League Playoffs, Armenia once again forfeits its home field advantage and must play a competitive match on unfamiliar turf. Armenia come into this match off the back of a cancelled friendly versus Albania, but around a week of time together to get fit and prepare tactically. Fortunately for Joaquin Caparros, Georgia played a match Thursday night in the Nations League playoffs.

Georgia, like North Macedonia, were victorious in their inaugural Nations League campaign, topping a group that included Kazakhstan, Latvia and Andorra. They went undefeated with 5 wins and 1 draw and earned themselves the right to complete against the other group winners in Group D where one team will reach the UEFA Euro 2020 competition. Unfortunately, Armenia missed out on the opportunity as Macedonia topped the group. The group was Armenia’s to lose and they did so after a very embarrassing defeat away to Gibraltar, handing them their first ever competitive win. This was the lowest point in Armenian football history, and sparked some real change in the front office and backroom staff, setting up the foundation for the work being done today.

Georgia came up against Belarus, who won their group in the last iteration of the tournament, in a single match knockout tie. Georgia earned a penalty very early on in the 4th minute and saw the game out with a 1-0 win to book a final against Macedonia, where the winner will qualify for the Euros. Both of these teams will be playing each other twice next month, coming at a great time for Armenia to capitalize. Georgia looked very tired on Thursday. They were very fortunate to come against a lackluster Belarus side that showed up to Georgia and did very little in the 90 minutes. The result was also a testament to the lack of effectiveness in the Georgian side, who despite coming up against a very poor Belarus, were unable to score from open play. Georgian players began to pull up with cramps 80 minutes in, and fitness was visibly an issue. They will only have three days to recover before they meet Armenia in Poland for the third round of the Nations League.

Armenia come into this tie with a 30 man squad, shaved down to 29 because of the absence of Hovhannes Hambardsumyan, Caparros was hoping to use the Albania match as an opportunity to give a few hopefuls a run out in the squad, but its apparent he will have to go with a lineup that he knows will work and will get the three points. Direct attacks and pace will rip apart this Georgian side, whoa re particularly weak in defending quick interchanging passes, the same style Caparros is trying to implement with Armenia. The return of Henrikh Mkhitaryan throws a very good issue, which will likely result in Kadimyan being dropped from the starting lineup. Karapetian will naturally be the starting striker as he is the only true 9 in the squad and Arshak Koryan will likely get the nod after his excellent display against Estonia. The other attacking midfield spot will likely go to Barseghyan or Bayramyan. This decision will influence the approach Armenia will take in this match.

Bayramyan is a ball playing attacking midfielder, he does not rely on pace, but rather his ability to create space with his dribbles by drawing players out of positions, and crossing in the ball. Barseghyan on the other hand is not known for his crossing ability, but rather his direct approach to the game, taking on defenders and making them think on their feet. Based on the footage from training, and the nature of the opposition, I would not be surprised to see Barseghyan get the nod. Bayramyan would lead to a complete attacking midfield line of technical players, where pace isn’t apparent. Barseghyan adds the additional dimension to the attack of taking players on, allowing Koryan and Mkhitaryan to abuse those spaces and find the final ball that Armenia were desperately missing.

The defensive midfield spots will likely not be touched at this moment, but if a comfortable lead is taken, expect Udo or Gareginyan to come into play. The one anticipated change in the back line comes at the right fullback slot, where Kamo Hovhannisyan will have a shot at redemption after a poor time out against Macedonia. He will likely be the fullback asked to push forward, as that is Hambardzumyan’s role. Kamo is a pace demon, and being on the same side as Barseghyan will cause a lot of issued and pull the Georgian defense to one side, leaving the very dangerous Mkhitaryan and Koryan combination to exploit the spaces. Armenia also have a lot of options on the bench, with Babayan, Bichakchyan and Bayramban ready to come in and provide a creative spark in different ways.

This is a match Armenia should be winning, and one that the side will go into with a little more motivation than other times. Armenia can use a morale boost an a national team victory does the trick. If Caparros can have Koryan and Mkhitaryan on the same wavelength we may be seeing the start of a new and very dangerous Armenia.

Armenia vs Georgia kicks off on Sunday 8pm Yerevan time.